Season Preview

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF

Bench
Jose Molina C
Shelley Duncan 1B-RF-LF
Morgan Ensberg 1B-3B
Wilson Betemit 1B-2B-3B-SS

Starters
RHP Chien-Ming Wang
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Ian Kennedy

Relievers
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Joba Chamberlain
RHP LaTroy Hawkins
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
LHP Billy Traber
RHP Ross Ohlendorf
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Jon Albaladejo




STARTING PITCHING:
I have never been so excited to watch a Yankees pitching staff since 2003. But in 2003 I didn’t realize how spoiled I was and this staff isn’t close to the 2003 staff… yet.

We’re going to do these guys one by one.

WANG:
So it’s obvious that the Yankees number 1 ain’t an ace. And probably he’s a very good number 2 or hopefully next year a fantastic number 3. Wanger will eat innings, go deep into games like the last couple of years. But here is my prediction for him this year. He’s going to get hit harder and his ERA which was in the mid threes the last two years will probably rise to the low 4’s. Why do I say this? Well, I wasn’t concerned about the playoff melt down last year, until this spring. Wang admitted in the playoffs last year he tinkered with mechanics and pitch selection, trying to avoid contact, and this spring he got rocked. If he keeps this up, expect the strikeouts to go up, but not the efficiency and lower score.

PETTITTE:
He only did it twice and it was to get back and help his teammates. Pettitte will be fine, he just needs to stay healthy. I have a feeling he’s leaving it all on the field, as he’ll retire at years end.

HUGHES:
I saw his debut in person last year. I will make sure I watch all of his starts this year in some way shape or form. Why? That sick curve mixed with a 94 MPH fastball. He’s good right now, he will be great. I think if the Yankees don’t really-really baby him he’ll win 15 games this year, easy.

KENNEDY:
He’s going to be better than everyone thinks. In three years he’ll be like Pettitte circa 1997. He’s smart, has great control and knows how to pitch. People compare him to the guy below, but I don’t see him having the K rates nor pure stuff that a young Mike Mussina had. Pettitte never had lights out stuff, but he got outs and kept his team in the game more than not, expect the same from Kennedy.

MUSSINA
I hate this guy. “Mr. Almost” I call him. Almost had numerous no hitters and perfect games. Almost won a championship in 2001. Almost won it in 2003 and would have been the MVP of that series. His career is Almost Hall of Fame worthy. And right now he Almost sucks enough to be released, but not quite. He’s going to get rocked for 4 starts pitch two good ones in a row, rinse repeat. So what will happen is he’ll hurt the Yankees Almost more than he helps them.



BULLPEN:
Mo at the end, Joba in the 8th. Not much to say about those two. I really like Ross Olendorf. To be honest if a pitcher has gone to a top-notch college i.e. Princeton or Stanford I think they’ll be able to figure out how to get hitters out. I know, I know, Mussina went to Stanford. The question I have is who will step up to take the 8th when they transition Joba to the rotation? Joba needs to be a starter, Johan was an 8th inning guy, too remember. And hopefully they’ll wise up and dump Mussina around the same time they transition Joba in the rotation sometime in late July. The other question I have is who will have a better (or should I say less worse) year, Farnsworth or Hawkins? Cashman finally wised up and is trying to take a page out of the Indians book, get a bunch of young power arms, throw them against the wall, two will stick, you catch lightening in a bottle and have a solid bullpen. Not worried about the pen, at all.

LINEUP:
They’ll score between 900 and 950 runs for the season and really need it because of the pitching. They’ll kill the weaker teams and pitchers and struggle against hard throwers who attack the zone. The only curiosity will be how long before Cano is hitting higher in the order, especially if he starts hot and Abreu (more on him) has a slow start like last year or if (more likely when) Giambi gets hurt. I look to this being Cano’s break out year. .315, 25 homers and 120 RBI. Posada is likely to regress back to his career norms, which is fine because I think that offense will be made up by a walk year Abreu. Abreu is the perfect walk year player. A guy who when he puts his mind to it is one of the games best, but can’t keep that concentration for the entire year. Abreu knows this is his last big pay day. If Abreu has a monster year and A-Rod has an average year by his standards, Alex will add a 4th MVP award in 6 years to his resume.

Talking about walk years I am very curious about Jason Giambi. Does he have a .400 OBP 35 homer year in him? You have to say, no, right? He’ll get hurt or hit .230 or probably both. I understand that it’s spring and we have to be optimistic but Girardi has the Giambino protecting A-Rod in the 5th position.

Let the Tigers get all the headlines, this Yankee lineup is the best in baseball top to bottom.


BENCH:
This might be the best bench since Darryl rode the pine. Duncan, Ensberg and Betimit are all the type of guys you want coming up needing a 3-run homer run late in the game (pinch hitting for who, though?) and they are all the type of guys you don’t view as easy outs when the regulars sit. I really like Ensberg, a lot. I think he’s going to be key this year. When Giambi goes down with his inevitable injury Ensberg will slide right in and give the lineup a little more balance. Ensberg is a ball player, he’ll be fine at first base, not be afraid of trying to go the other way to move a runner over and get his jersey dirty every time he’s in lineup. Shelly Duncan is the Ty Domi of this team, with more offense. Gotta love him, if he gets 350 at bats, he’ll hit 20 homeruns, get suspended twice and probably knock someone out, hopefully it’s a Red Sox. As for Benji Molina, he’s the best back up catcher since the Posada/Girardi days.

MANAGER:
Too bad Girardi’s first name is Joe or we could keep a running count of how many times Sterling forgets that Joe Torre is not the manager of the Yankees for the first time in 12 years.

I am thrilled that Joe Girardi is the manager of this team. So far his hire has paid off since a lot of veterans who got complacent showed up to camp in better shape. Most people ignore that the Yankees problem the last 3 years has been injury. Right now everyone is in shape and healthy. If that continues, this is a playoff team.

I am also looking forward to a more aggressive managing style. Some more Zimmer style hit and runs, pitchers going out there to start an inning while Girardi tries to steal outs.

And I am happy that with a new manager every player has to earn it all over again. Torre was never going to be the guy to take Jeter out of short and he was never going to be the guy to tell Moose he’s done (it was Cashman last year who pulled Moose and Torre who couldn’t wait for him to get the ball in the playoffs).

How Girardi deals with the media and first controversy of the year will be interesting and make for good drama, but on the field he’s going to excel.

PREDICTION:
Last year in this very forum I said that we as Yankee fans are lucky to root for a team that can rebuild and contend at the same time. And last year I thought there was a very good chance the Yankees miss the playoffs. Once they brought in Clemens, though you figured they would make the Playoffs and they did. This year I don’t see it happening. The AL East is a beast. Tampa is better than ever, the Blue Jays have to stay healthy once of these years. And the Red Sox are the team to beat in all of baseball, IF they stay healthy.

As for the Yankees, I think that they’ll be fun to watch, it’s exciting to see these kids go out there every day, and the Yankees future is bright. But this year there are going to be too many times where the starting pitching falters and they lose 8-7, 11-7, etc.

I think the Yankees in the end miss the playoffs, they will be in a dog fight all year, though. But it’s OK, because with $80 million coming off the books next year, watch out. The Yankees are set to be more of a powerhouse than the Red Sox have been for the last 4-5 years. I can’t wait for them to PLAY BALL!