Every so often in this blog I will pose a question about a past yankee move or game or something. I will ask the question and then give my thoughts. Would love some feedback from everyone, I am curious what you think. Today's edition:
2004 Yankees Try To Aquire Randy Johnson at the trade dealine. They fail. Lose the 3-0 series lead to Sox. History is forever changed.
It's been reported many times what the Yankees were offering the D-backs in exchange for Randy Johnson in 2004. A package containing Cano, Wang and Navarro. In the end the D-Backs rejected the offer, the Yankees without a true dominant ace lose the series to the Sox. Then in the next year, Wang and Cano emerge as a new young core of future Yankee teams and potentially still to come Yankee dynasties.
If the trade was made, Johnson would have probably been the difference and the Yankees probably would have beat the Red Sox in 4 or 5 games in the 2004 ALCS. If the Yankees beat the Red Sox, let's assume they would have beaten the Cardnials. The Yankees are Champions. Theo Epstein would have made a few daring moves, like trading Nomar and not had a payoff of a championship. Epstein might not have survived his sabbatical. But enough about how that trade would have impacted the Sox...
If the trade happened in 2004 then in 2005 there would be no Cano and Wang to the rescue, and more to the point they wouldn't be there to prove that the Yankees can and should build from within. In fact, if they traded for Johnson and he helped them win the pennant, then it would have reinforced the notion of trading away the youth and brining in high priced guys.
In fact, I would theorize that Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy would be with other organizations, traded off, maybe for good major leaguers, but expensive guys with no upside. Cashman might have quit because Tampa would have been emboldened by trade, too.
The positives of the trade. Well the curse would have continued, and even if the Sox won last year, it was not through the Yankees. The pain of blowing the 3-0 lead would never have happened, either. And Boston fans wouldn't have much to hold over New Yorkers heads.
So what's is my answer? Well every year the pain from that lose goes away. At the time when the trade was being discussed, I said to a friend, "if the Yankees get Johnson, doesn't that take some fun out of it all"? Obviously I never want to go through 2004 again, and it hurt and still hurts. But I am more excited about the Yankee team than any time since 1996. And I am excited about the future of it.
After watching the Football Giants win with young guys and a cinderella story I remember what a great feeling it is watching a team that is not supposed to win, actually win. Now I don't want the Yankees to always be young and under dogs, but I like seeing guys play for the fun and watch these players grow up.
I think this new Yankee youth will pay off with a championship in the next 4 years. And when they win, it'll purge all those 2004 deamons.
So my answer is this: I am glad they didn't trade away Wang and Cano. We'll look back and the 2004 ALCS collapse will turn into a Yankee positive.
What do you guys think?
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Testing, testing, 1-2-3.
Mussina passed the test last night. Obviously I am unconvinced, but hey if I'm wrong the Yankees will do well so I can't complain. Unless they give him another contract.
Solid wins the last couple of days. Yanks played clean good baseball. Finished the opening home stand 4-3. The way they hit it could have been worse. So we'll take it.
The last few days showed some more "tests" for the Yanks.
Girardi. He passed the bullpen test on Sunday brining in Joba to the high leverage situation in the 7th inning. Torre may, or may not have done that. But if Torre was manager, Farnsworth would have been in the game at some point, or Mo would have gone 2 innings. So the same point, Joba passed the test. He realized that he doesn't HAVE to strike everyone out. Obviously coming into the 7th with 1st and 3rd he needed a strike out and get got it, then went for another one and got a double play.
The next inning he went to throwing 2 and 4 seamers, letting the hitters make contact and trusting his fielders, he ended up only throwing 16 pitches for the two innings. Now if this 23 year old can think like that and trust his stuff while pitching in the 8th inning of a 2 run game, imagine what he'll do as a starter. I can't wait.
Girardi has another test coming up. The injured Jeter test. If Jeter is out for more than a game or two or three best team the Yankees can field is, Ensberg at third and Giambi at first. And yes, with A-Rod at short stop. Now Torre wouldn't do this, but Giardi can and he should. I hope it doesn't come to that, because we need the Captain healthy and contributing. But, man that would be interesting.
Johnny Damon. Damon's test is coming up. Is he washed up? Can he have a decent season? I'd give him another two weeks, but if Johnny's not producing then he needs to be dropped in the lineup. Jeter or Melky can lead off.
It's off to KC for the Bombers. They should win this series. Bummed I'm not going to see Phil's start today in the glory of HD, I'll have to settle for the SlingBox again.
Solid wins the last couple of days. Yanks played clean good baseball. Finished the opening home stand 4-3. The way they hit it could have been worse. So we'll take it.
The last few days showed some more "tests" for the Yanks.
Girardi. He passed the bullpen test on Sunday brining in Joba to the high leverage situation in the 7th inning. Torre may, or may not have done that. But if Torre was manager, Farnsworth would have been in the game at some point, or Mo would have gone 2 innings. So the same point, Joba passed the test. He realized that he doesn't HAVE to strike everyone out. Obviously coming into the 7th with 1st and 3rd he needed a strike out and get got it, then went for another one and got a double play.
The next inning he went to throwing 2 and 4 seamers, letting the hitters make contact and trusting his fielders, he ended up only throwing 16 pitches for the two innings. Now if this 23 year old can think like that and trust his stuff while pitching in the 8th inning of a 2 run game, imagine what he'll do as a starter. I can't wait.
Girardi has another test coming up. The injured Jeter test. If Jeter is out for more than a game or two or three best team the Yankees can field is, Ensberg at third and Giambi at first. And yes, with A-Rod at short stop. Now Torre wouldn't do this, but Giardi can and he should. I hope it doesn't come to that, because we need the Captain healthy and contributing. But, man that would be interesting.
Johnny Damon. Damon's test is coming up. Is he washed up? Can he have a decent season? I'd give him another two weeks, but if Johnny's not producing then he needs to be dropped in the lineup. Jeter or Melky can lead off.
It's off to KC for the Bombers. They should win this series. Bummed I'm not going to see Phil's start today in the glory of HD, I'll have to settle for the SlingBox again.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
O'fer
The title above reference me, not the Yanks. I'm O'fer in seeing a game this year on a real TV from home. I hope to break that spell today for the 1:05 tilt against the 'Rays.
Anyway, I did see the later innings on Thursday night. Just the kind of game you need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. In fact, through the first 4 games this team looks an awful lot like the Team that played .650 ball in the second half of last year. Before they went on the tear last year, the Yanks, lost a lot of 3-2 games and a lot of 3-2 games they had turned into 7-2 but the incendiary bullpen or the injured starting staff.
Friday night's blowout also reminded me a lot of last years team. It's gonna happen with the young kids. Remember second half of last year the Yanks would win 3 in a row, then lose 12-3, and then win 4 in a row? That's the importance of having a veteran team. They move on. I just hope Ian Kennedy didn't get his confidence shaken. For what it's worth he looked like Andy Pettitte circa game 6 of the 2001 World Series, not my prediction of Andy Pettitte circa 1997.
And speaking of Pettitte he makes his season debut today. Remember, he only did it twice and it was to help his teammates. Well what his teammates need are a minimum of 6 innings and a maximum of 3 runs. It's doable. And I'll finally be watching...
Anyway, I did see the later innings on Thursday night. Just the kind of game you need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. In fact, through the first 4 games this team looks an awful lot like the Team that played .650 ball in the second half of last year. Before they went on the tear last year, the Yanks, lost a lot of 3-2 games and a lot of 3-2 games they had turned into 7-2 but the incendiary bullpen or the injured starting staff.
Friday night's blowout also reminded me a lot of last years team. It's gonna happen with the young kids. Remember second half of last year the Yanks would win 3 in a row, then lose 12-3, and then win 4 in a row? That's the importance of having a veteran team. They move on. I just hope Ian Kennedy didn't get his confidence shaken. For what it's worth he looked like Andy Pettitte circa game 6 of the 2001 World Series, not my prediction of Andy Pettitte circa 1997.
And speaking of Pettitte he makes his season debut today. Remember, he only did it twice and it was to help his teammates. Well what his teammates need are a minimum of 6 innings and a maximum of 3 runs. It's doable. And I'll finally be watching...
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Moose for Pedro Straight Up
I do it in a second. Pedro on the DL or under a mango tree, for that matter, is better than Mike Mussina at this point.
In all seriousness, though, the Moose is cooked, in the AL. He'd be a very good NL pitcher, I think, but right now he can't put the AL batters away. That 0-2 meatball he served up to give up the third run, really got my blood boiling. But not as much as seeing columnists say, "well he didn't really pitch that bad" Yeah well he pitched just "good" enough to lose, again.
Here's hoping that in June/July a certain NL West team is in need of a veteran starter and wants to give up a few prospects, maybe an 8th inning guy. We'll call that NL West team the "Rogers," for argument's sake. Then the Yankees take that 8th inning guy and transition Joba to the rotation, or take a handful of prospects from the "Rogers"and a handful of our own prospects and turn them into a legitimate starter. Something. Anything. Just not Mussina.
Although all of this is moot in the end because AJ Burnett pitched really well for the third time in two years against the Bombers. He's legit. Probably better all around stuff than Pavano, he just can't stay healthy. But if he and Halladay can, boy the Jays will be tough to handle.
One other thing to note from this game, A-Rod picked up right where he left off. If Abreu has a good start, or should I say a normal start unlike last year, A-Rod may drive in 160. He brings a lot of baggage and when he opted out I was ready to say, "good bye, I rather in 85 games without you then 95 with." That really masked the devistation of not being able to see the best player of my generation play every day for 6 months. He's back and I think I, and the rest of Yankee fans are lucky to be able to see this guy, in his prime go after the record books (and Canseco's wife).
Oh and by the way, I am going to the game on Monday night. And guess who's scheduled to start? Yeah, that's right, stuck in the middle with Moose. I've never prayed so hard for a rain out. Anyone but MUSSINA!
In all seriousness, though, the Moose is cooked, in the AL. He'd be a very good NL pitcher, I think, but right now he can't put the AL batters away. That 0-2 meatball he served up to give up the third run, really got my blood boiling. But not as much as seeing columnists say, "well he didn't really pitch that bad" Yeah well he pitched just "good" enough to lose, again.
Here's hoping that in June/July a certain NL West team is in need of a veteran starter and wants to give up a few prospects, maybe an 8th inning guy. We'll call that NL West team the "Rogers," for argument's sake. Then the Yankees take that 8th inning guy and transition Joba to the rotation, or take a handful of prospects from the "Rogers"and a handful of our own prospects and turn them into a legitimate starter. Something. Anything. Just not Mussina.
Although all of this is moot in the end because AJ Burnett pitched really well for the third time in two years against the Bombers. He's legit. Probably better all around stuff than Pavano, he just can't stay healthy. But if he and Halladay can, boy the Jays will be tough to handle.
One other thing to note from this game, A-Rod picked up right where he left off. If Abreu has a good start, or should I say a normal start unlike last year, A-Rod may drive in 160. He brings a lot of baggage and when he opted out I was ready to say, "good bye, I rather in 85 games without you then 95 with." That really masked the devistation of not being able to see the best player of my generation play every day for 6 months. He's back and I think I, and the rest of Yankee fans are lucky to be able to see this guy, in his prime go after the record books (and Canseco's wife).
Oh and by the way, I am going to the game on Monday night. And guess who's scheduled to start? Yeah, that's right, stuck in the middle with Moose. I've never prayed so hard for a rain out. Anyone but MUSSINA!
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
1 down 99 to go?
So the Yankees win another opening day. A great game, even though I had to watch on my slingbox in the edit room. I love the youthful enthusiasm. Halladay can yell all he wants at Melky for taking the curtain call, and Joba can yell all he wants when he punches out Frank Thomas. Melky with a heck of a game
Nice win for Girardi and the Bronx Bombers.
NOTE:
As for my love of the Yankee bench, I am not too worried about late inning defensive substitutions. Last year Torre replaced Giambi a bunch of times and the other team came back to tie bringing in Doug Mandladhjslfkhjdfkjd who would inevitably bat with a chance to win it and blow it. We shall see if at some point Giambi or whoever is at first boots the game away late.
Nice win for Girardi and the Bronx Bombers.
NOTE:
As for my love of the Yankee bench, I am not too worried about late inning defensive substitutions. Last year Torre replaced Giambi a bunch of times and the other team came back to tie bringing in Doug Mandladhjslfkhjdfkjd who would inevitably bat with a chance to win it and blow it. We shall see if at some point Giambi or whoever is at first boots the game away late.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Opening Day
I can't remember an opening day sneaking up on me like this one. Between the Giants' magical run and all the steroid talk, I kinda switched off baseball after the Santana trade. I'm happy baseball is back, not sure I am ready for the daily commitment to sweating through games, but I have a feeling it's like riding a bike.
This opening day is bittersweet. The last at Yankee Stadium. It used to be a tradition with my and my Dad, taking the day off school and work and going to opening day. Now it would have cost half a grand to get in the door and the view isn't as good then HD from my couch. It's be sad to see Yankee Stadium go, I hope at least once this year I can go early watch BP and get one more "Let's Go Yankees" chant in.
This opening day is bittersweet. The last at Yankee Stadium. It used to be a tradition with my and my Dad, taking the day off school and work and going to opening day. Now it would have cost half a grand to get in the door and the view isn't as good then HD from my couch. It's be sad to see Yankee Stadium go, I hope at least once this year I can go early watch BP and get one more "Let's Go Yankees" chant in.
Season Preview
Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Bench
Jose Molina C
Shelley Duncan 1B-RF-LF
Morgan Ensberg 1B-3B
Wilson Betemit 1B-2B-3B-SS
Starters
RHP Chien-Ming Wang
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Ian Kennedy
Relievers
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Joba Chamberlain
RHP LaTroy Hawkins
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
LHP Billy Traber
RHP Ross Ohlendorf
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Jon Albaladejo
STARTING PITCHING:
I have never been so excited to watch a Yankees pitching staff since 2003. But in 2003 I didn’t realize how spoiled I was and this staff isn’t close to the 2003 staff… yet.
We’re going to do these guys one by one.
WANG:
So it’s obvious that the Yankees number 1 ain’t an ace. And probably he’s a very good number 2 or hopefully next year a fantastic number 3. Wanger will eat innings, go deep into games like the last couple of years. But here is my prediction for him this year. He’s going to get hit harder and his ERA which was in the mid threes the last two years will probably rise to the low 4’s. Why do I say this? Well, I wasn’t concerned about the playoff melt down last year, until this spring. Wang admitted in the playoffs last year he tinkered with mechanics and pitch selection, trying to avoid contact, and this spring he got rocked. If he keeps this up, expect the strikeouts to go up, but not the efficiency and lower score.
PETTITTE:
He only did it twice and it was to get back and help his teammates. Pettitte will be fine, he just needs to stay healthy. I have a feeling he’s leaving it all on the field, as he’ll retire at years end.
HUGHES:
I saw his debut in person last year. I will make sure I watch all of his starts this year in some way shape or form. Why? That sick curve mixed with a 94 MPH fastball. He’s good right now, he will be great. I think if the Yankees don’t really-really baby him he’ll win 15 games this year, easy.
KENNEDY:
He’s going to be better than everyone thinks. In three years he’ll be like Pettitte circa 1997. He’s smart, has great control and knows how to pitch. People compare him to the guy below, but I don’t see him having the K rates nor pure stuff that a young Mike Mussina had. Pettitte never had lights out stuff, but he got outs and kept his team in the game more than not, expect the same from Kennedy.
MUSSINA
I hate this guy. “Mr. Almost” I call him. Almost had numerous no hitters and perfect games. Almost won a championship in 2001. Almost won it in 2003 and would have been the MVP of that series. His career is Almost Hall of Fame worthy. And right now he Almost sucks enough to be released, but not quite. He’s going to get rocked for 4 starts pitch two good ones in a row, rinse repeat. So what will happen is he’ll hurt the Yankees Almost more than he helps them.
BULLPEN:
Mo at the end, Joba in the 8th. Not much to say about those two. I really like Ross Olendorf. To be honest if a pitcher has gone to a top-notch college i.e. Princeton or Stanford I think they’ll be able to figure out how to get hitters out. I know, I know, Mussina went to Stanford. The question I have is who will step up to take the 8th when they transition Joba to the rotation? Joba needs to be a starter, Johan was an 8th inning guy, too remember. And hopefully they’ll wise up and dump Mussina around the same time they transition Joba in the rotation sometime in late July. The other question I have is who will have a better (or should I say less worse) year, Farnsworth or Hawkins? Cashman finally wised up and is trying to take a page out of the Indians book, get a bunch of young power arms, throw them against the wall, two will stick, you catch lightening in a bottle and have a solid bullpen. Not worried about the pen, at all.
LINEUP:
They’ll score between 900 and 950 runs for the season and really need it because of the pitching. They’ll kill the weaker teams and pitchers and struggle against hard throwers who attack the zone. The only curiosity will be how long before Cano is hitting higher in the order, especially if he starts hot and Abreu (more on him) has a slow start like last year or if (more likely when) Giambi gets hurt. I look to this being Cano’s break out year. .315, 25 homers and 120 RBI. Posada is likely to regress back to his career norms, which is fine because I think that offense will be made up by a walk year Abreu. Abreu is the perfect walk year player. A guy who when he puts his mind to it is one of the games best, but can’t keep that concentration for the entire year. Abreu knows this is his last big pay day. If Abreu has a monster year and A-Rod has an average year by his standards, Alex will add a 4th MVP award in 6 years to his resume.
Talking about walk years I am very curious about Jason Giambi. Does he have a .400 OBP 35 homer year in him? You have to say, no, right? He’ll get hurt or hit .230 or probably both. I understand that it’s spring and we have to be optimistic but Girardi has the Giambino protecting A-Rod in the 5th position.
Let the Tigers get all the headlines, this Yankee lineup is the best in baseball top to bottom.
BENCH:
This might be the best bench since Darryl rode the pine. Duncan, Ensberg and Betimit are all the type of guys you want coming up needing a 3-run homer run late in the game (pinch hitting for who, though?) and they are all the type of guys you don’t view as easy outs when the regulars sit. I really like Ensberg, a lot. I think he’s going to be key this year. When Giambi goes down with his inevitable injury Ensberg will slide right in and give the lineup a little more balance. Ensberg is a ball player, he’ll be fine at first base, not be afraid of trying to go the other way to move a runner over and get his jersey dirty every time he’s in lineup. Shelly Duncan is the Ty Domi of this team, with more offense. Gotta love him, if he gets 350 at bats, he’ll hit 20 homeruns, get suspended twice and probably knock someone out, hopefully it’s a Red Sox. As for Benji Molina, he’s the best back up catcher since the Posada/Girardi days.
MANAGER:
Too bad Girardi’s first name is Joe or we could keep a running count of how many times Sterling forgets that Joe Torre is not the manager of the Yankees for the first time in 12 years.
I am thrilled that Joe Girardi is the manager of this team. So far his hire has paid off since a lot of veterans who got complacent showed up to camp in better shape. Most people ignore that the Yankees problem the last 3 years has been injury. Right now everyone is in shape and healthy. If that continues, this is a playoff team.
I am also looking forward to a more aggressive managing style. Some more Zimmer style hit and runs, pitchers going out there to start an inning while Girardi tries to steal outs.
And I am happy that with a new manager every player has to earn it all over again. Torre was never going to be the guy to take Jeter out of short and he was never going to be the guy to tell Moose he’s done (it was Cashman last year who pulled Moose and Torre who couldn’t wait for him to get the ball in the playoffs).
How Girardi deals with the media and first controversy of the year will be interesting and make for good drama, but on the field he’s going to excel.
PREDICTION:
Last year in this very forum I said that we as Yankee fans are lucky to root for a team that can rebuild and contend at the same time. And last year I thought there was a very good chance the Yankees miss the playoffs. Once they brought in Clemens, though you figured they would make the Playoffs and they did. This year I don’t see it happening. The AL East is a beast. Tampa is better than ever, the Blue Jays have to stay healthy once of these years. And the Red Sox are the team to beat in all of baseball, IF they stay healthy.
As for the Yankees, I think that they’ll be fun to watch, it’s exciting to see these kids go out there every day, and the Yankees future is bright. But this year there are going to be too many times where the starting pitching falters and they lose 8-7, 11-7, etc.
I think the Yankees in the end miss the playoffs, they will be in a dog fight all year, though. But it’s OK, because with $80 million coming off the books next year, watch out. The Yankees are set to be more of a powerhouse than the Red Sox have been for the last 4-5 years. I can’t wait for them to PLAY BALL!
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi 1B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Bench
Jose Molina C
Shelley Duncan 1B-RF-LF
Morgan Ensberg 1B-3B
Wilson Betemit 1B-2B-3B-SS
Starters
RHP Chien-Ming Wang
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Ian Kennedy
Relievers
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Joba Chamberlain
RHP LaTroy Hawkins
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
LHP Billy Traber
RHP Ross Ohlendorf
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Jon Albaladejo
STARTING PITCHING:
I have never been so excited to watch a Yankees pitching staff since 2003. But in 2003 I didn’t realize how spoiled I was and this staff isn’t close to the 2003 staff… yet.
We’re going to do these guys one by one.
WANG:
So it’s obvious that the Yankees number 1 ain’t an ace. And probably he’s a very good number 2 or hopefully next year a fantastic number 3. Wanger will eat innings, go deep into games like the last couple of years. But here is my prediction for him this year. He’s going to get hit harder and his ERA which was in the mid threes the last two years will probably rise to the low 4’s. Why do I say this? Well, I wasn’t concerned about the playoff melt down last year, until this spring. Wang admitted in the playoffs last year he tinkered with mechanics and pitch selection, trying to avoid contact, and this spring he got rocked. If he keeps this up, expect the strikeouts to go up, but not the efficiency and lower score.
PETTITTE:
He only did it twice and it was to get back and help his teammates. Pettitte will be fine, he just needs to stay healthy. I have a feeling he’s leaving it all on the field, as he’ll retire at years end.
HUGHES:
I saw his debut in person last year. I will make sure I watch all of his starts this year in some way shape or form. Why? That sick curve mixed with a 94 MPH fastball. He’s good right now, he will be great. I think if the Yankees don’t really-really baby him he’ll win 15 games this year, easy.
KENNEDY:
He’s going to be better than everyone thinks. In three years he’ll be like Pettitte circa 1997. He’s smart, has great control and knows how to pitch. People compare him to the guy below, but I don’t see him having the K rates nor pure stuff that a young Mike Mussina had. Pettitte never had lights out stuff, but he got outs and kept his team in the game more than not, expect the same from Kennedy.
MUSSINA
I hate this guy. “Mr. Almost” I call him. Almost had numerous no hitters and perfect games. Almost won a championship in 2001. Almost won it in 2003 and would have been the MVP of that series. His career is Almost Hall of Fame worthy. And right now he Almost sucks enough to be released, but not quite. He’s going to get rocked for 4 starts pitch two good ones in a row, rinse repeat. So what will happen is he’ll hurt the Yankees Almost more than he helps them.
BULLPEN:
Mo at the end, Joba in the 8th. Not much to say about those two. I really like Ross Olendorf. To be honest if a pitcher has gone to a top-notch college i.e. Princeton or Stanford I think they’ll be able to figure out how to get hitters out. I know, I know, Mussina went to Stanford. The question I have is who will step up to take the 8th when they transition Joba to the rotation? Joba needs to be a starter, Johan was an 8th inning guy, too remember. And hopefully they’ll wise up and dump Mussina around the same time they transition Joba in the rotation sometime in late July. The other question I have is who will have a better (or should I say less worse) year, Farnsworth or Hawkins? Cashman finally wised up and is trying to take a page out of the Indians book, get a bunch of young power arms, throw them against the wall, two will stick, you catch lightening in a bottle and have a solid bullpen. Not worried about the pen, at all.
LINEUP:
They’ll score between 900 and 950 runs for the season and really need it because of the pitching. They’ll kill the weaker teams and pitchers and struggle against hard throwers who attack the zone. The only curiosity will be how long before Cano is hitting higher in the order, especially if he starts hot and Abreu (more on him) has a slow start like last year or if (more likely when) Giambi gets hurt. I look to this being Cano’s break out year. .315, 25 homers and 120 RBI. Posada is likely to regress back to his career norms, which is fine because I think that offense will be made up by a walk year Abreu. Abreu is the perfect walk year player. A guy who when he puts his mind to it is one of the games best, but can’t keep that concentration for the entire year. Abreu knows this is his last big pay day. If Abreu has a monster year and A-Rod has an average year by his standards, Alex will add a 4th MVP award in 6 years to his resume.
Talking about walk years I am very curious about Jason Giambi. Does he have a .400 OBP 35 homer year in him? You have to say, no, right? He’ll get hurt or hit .230 or probably both. I understand that it’s spring and we have to be optimistic but Girardi has the Giambino protecting A-Rod in the 5th position.
Let the Tigers get all the headlines, this Yankee lineup is the best in baseball top to bottom.
BENCH:
This might be the best bench since Darryl rode the pine. Duncan, Ensberg and Betimit are all the type of guys you want coming up needing a 3-run homer run late in the game (pinch hitting for who, though?) and they are all the type of guys you don’t view as easy outs when the regulars sit. I really like Ensberg, a lot. I think he’s going to be key this year. When Giambi goes down with his inevitable injury Ensberg will slide right in and give the lineup a little more balance. Ensberg is a ball player, he’ll be fine at first base, not be afraid of trying to go the other way to move a runner over and get his jersey dirty every time he’s in lineup. Shelly Duncan is the Ty Domi of this team, with more offense. Gotta love him, if he gets 350 at bats, he’ll hit 20 homeruns, get suspended twice and probably knock someone out, hopefully it’s a Red Sox. As for Benji Molina, he’s the best back up catcher since the Posada/Girardi days.
MANAGER:
Too bad Girardi’s first name is Joe or we could keep a running count of how many times Sterling forgets that Joe Torre is not the manager of the Yankees for the first time in 12 years.
I am thrilled that Joe Girardi is the manager of this team. So far his hire has paid off since a lot of veterans who got complacent showed up to camp in better shape. Most people ignore that the Yankees problem the last 3 years has been injury. Right now everyone is in shape and healthy. If that continues, this is a playoff team.
I am also looking forward to a more aggressive managing style. Some more Zimmer style hit and runs, pitchers going out there to start an inning while Girardi tries to steal outs.
And I am happy that with a new manager every player has to earn it all over again. Torre was never going to be the guy to take Jeter out of short and he was never going to be the guy to tell Moose he’s done (it was Cashman last year who pulled Moose and Torre who couldn’t wait for him to get the ball in the playoffs).
How Girardi deals with the media and first controversy of the year will be interesting and make for good drama, but on the field he’s going to excel.
PREDICTION:
Last year in this very forum I said that we as Yankee fans are lucky to root for a team that can rebuild and contend at the same time. And last year I thought there was a very good chance the Yankees miss the playoffs. Once they brought in Clemens, though you figured they would make the Playoffs and they did. This year I don’t see it happening. The AL East is a beast. Tampa is better than ever, the Blue Jays have to stay healthy once of these years. And the Red Sox are the team to beat in all of baseball, IF they stay healthy.
As for the Yankees, I think that they’ll be fun to watch, it’s exciting to see these kids go out there every day, and the Yankees future is bright. But this year there are going to be too many times where the starting pitching falters and they lose 8-7, 11-7, etc.
I think the Yankees in the end miss the playoffs, they will be in a dog fight all year, though. But it’s OK, because with $80 million coming off the books next year, watch out. The Yankees are set to be more of a powerhouse than the Red Sox have been for the last 4-5 years. I can’t wait for them to PLAY BALL!
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